Sales and EPS Projections in Line with Consensus
The analysts' firm models predict Q1 sales in line with consensus and guidance, with an EPS slightly above. They expect net sales to increase by 5.0% and Walmart US comps to grow by 4%, compared to the consensus of +5.2% and guidance of +4.5-5.0% cc.
Potential Beat and F23 Guidance Reiteration
Citi believes the market expects a modest beat and reiteration of the F23 guidance or a slight upward revision. They mentioned that management reiterated its 1Q and F23 guidance during the 4/4-4/5 investor event.
Q2 Earnings and Annual Guidance Projections
Citi analysts don't expect any changes in the previously guided flat YoY 2Q EBIT. This implies a 2Q EPS of approximately $1.65-1.70 versus the consensus of $1.70. They predict that management will maintain its 2H guidance and raise annual guidance by the amount of the 1Q beat ($0.03), resulting in a revised guidance of $5.93-6.08 against the consensus of $6.11.
Walmart's Web and Foot Traffic Data Analysis
The analysts observed that Walmart's web traffic data for the first quarter is similar to the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, foot traffic data decelerated to -7.8% from -3.2% in 4Q22. However, they also noted that this data does not correlate well with Walmart's sales.