Wall Street Worries Over the US Stock Rally
Several Wall Street banks have issued a word of caution amid the burgeoning US stock rally, suggesting that inflated valuations could leave equities more exposed to potential losses. Despite the S&P 500's recent pullback, it has ascended over 13% since the start of the year, propelled by moderating inflation, advances in artificial intelligence, and a rising risk appetite.
Elevated Stock Prices and Historical Precedents
However, these gains have escalated stock prices to higher levels. The S&P 500's trade at 19 times its projected 12-month earnings significantly exceeds its historical average of 15.6 times, as illustrated by Refinitiv Datastream. Comparable valuation levels in the past have often led to periods of volatile performance.
The Potential for a Market Drawdown
Goldman Sachs highlights that historically when the S&P 500 has reached or exceeded the current valuations, there has typically been a median drawdown of 14% over the following year. This is starkly higher than a 5% drawdown observed during a typical 12-month period.
High Valuations Warrant Investment Reevaluation
High valuations are triggering a reassessment of investment strategies. As Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute suggests, it may be prudent to "take some chips off the table." Potential uncertainties such as unexpected weak economic growth, a more hawkish Federal Reserve, and rebounding inflation could all affect the market outlook.
Technology Sector Downgrade Amid Rising Valuations
The Wells Fargo Investment Institute has recently demoted the technology sector – a key driver of this year's S&P 500 rally – from "favorable" to "neutral," due to its "unattractive" valuations. Similarly, Goldman Sachs is encouraging investors to consider "downside protection," although they forecast the S&P 500 to hit 4,500 by the end of the year.
The Nasdaq 100's Stretching Valuations
The Nasdaq 100's valuation seems even more overstretched. Its 36% rally this year surpasses that of the S&P 500, with a trade at almost 27 times its forward earnings estimates, well above its historical average. Furthermore, earnings projections for high-growth companies within the index are more conservative than last year, which complicates the justification for such high valuations.
Warning Signs for Continued Momentum
Despite impressive gains, signs of momentum faltering are starting to emerge. Indicators related to trends and momentum are showing signs of weakness, signaling caution for investors.
Market Anticipation and Investor Positioning
Investors will be closely monitoring key economic indicators next week, particularly the upcoming inflation data, as the second quarter draws to a close. High investor positioning in equities, along with dwindling tailwinds that have supported stocks in recent months, are additional reasons for caution.
Potential for Continued Rally Despite Concerns
Despite these concerns, there are signs that the rally could still progress. The S&P 500's rise of over 20% from its October lows has convinced some that we are in a "bull market" phase, with history indicating a continued rally after reaching this threshold. Moreover, the recent outperformance of sectors such as industrials and materials has stoked optimism that the rally could broaden beyond tech and other mega-cap stocks.
Preparing for a Market Cool Down
While a broadening rally might instill some positivity among investors, the swift rise above the index's technical trend lines may suggest an imminent pullback. As Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, notes, investors should be prepared for stocks to "cool a little bit" in the near term.