Consensus Among Economists That a Recession is Imminent
Economists have been forecasting an upcoming recession for months, with most anticipating it to begin early next year. While the specifics of the recession, such as its depth, duration, and severity, are still up for debate, the consensus among economists is that the economy is headed for a period of contraction. Mark Zandi, a chief economist at Moody's Analytics, explained that historically, high inflation coupled with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to combat it has resulted in a recession. This scenario, referred to as an "overheating" of the economy, has been seen before and occurs when the economy ultimately becomes weighed down by the burden of higher interest rates.
Unprecedented Awareness of a Pending Recession
In contrast to past recessions, which often took people by surprise, many CEOs and experts openly discuss the possibility of a recession. "Usually, recessions sneak up on us. CEOs never talk about recessions," said Mark Zandi. "Now it seems CEOs are falling over themselves to say we're falling into a recession...Every person on TV says recession. Every economist says recession. I've never seen anything like it." This level of awareness and acknowledgment of an impending recession is unusual and may result from the increased frequency and severity of economic downturns in recent years.
The Federal Reserve's Role in the Upcoming Recession
The Federal Reserve, which typically acts to stimulate the economy during times of downturn, may actually be contributing to the upcoming recession. In response to the previous two recessions, the central bank helped to increase lending by lowering interest rates to zero and adding trillions of dollars in assets to its balance sheet. However, in the current economic climate, the Fed is unwinding its balance sheet and raising interest rates, which reached a range of 4.25% to 4.5% in December.
While the Fed's actions were successful in stimulating the economy in the past, they may not be as effective in the current situation as the central bank is also dealing with high inflation. Officials have forecast additional interest rate hikes in the future, potentially reaching a level of 5.1% by early next year, and economists expect the central bank may keep rates high after that in order to control inflation. These high-interest rates are already impacting the housing market, with home sales down 35.4% from last year and a 30-year mortgage rate approaching 7%. Inflation, which stood at a 7.1% annual rate in November, is also a concern.
The Potential Severity of the Upcoming Recession
A recession is typically defined as a prolonged economic downturn that impacts the overall economy and lasts for at least two quarters. The National Bureau of Economic Research, which officially declares recessions, takes into account the depth, scope, and duration of the slowdown when making its determination. However, if any factor is severe enough, the NBER may declare a recession even if it does not meet all of these criteria. For example, the sudden and widespread impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a recession being declared, even though it was relatively short-lived.
While some experts, such as Diane Swonk of KPMG, hope for a short and shallow recession, others believe it could be more severe. Tom Simons, a money market economist at Jefferies, predicts that the downturn will follow a classic pattern, with margin compression in corporate profits leading to cost-cutting measures such as layoffs. This could lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth and a decrease in inflation.
Factors Contributing to the Upcoming Recession
There are several factors that may be contributing to the upcoming recession. High inflation and the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat it through interest rate hikes are likely playing a significant role. The central bank's unwinding of its balance sheet and the resulting increase in interest rates are having an impact on the housing market and may also be contributing to the slowdown in economic growth.
Additionally, the ongoing trade tensions and tariffs between the United States and other countries and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit may add to economic instability. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic downturn may also be contributing to the likelihood of a recession.
How a Recession May Affect Different Sectors of the Economy
A recession can have far-reaching effects on different sectors of the economy. The housing market, as mentioned previously, may be particularly vulnerable due to the high-interest rates and declining home sales. The stock market may also be impacted, with investors potentially becoming more cautious and leading to a decline in stock prices.
Businesses may also feel the effects of a recession, with margin compression leading to cost-cutting measures such as layoffs. Consumers may also be impacted, with a potential decrease in spending power due to job losses and a decline in asset values.
Potential Strategies for Weathering a Recession
There are several strategies that individuals and businesses can utilize to weather a recession. For individuals, it may be helpful to have an emergency fund in place in case of job loss or other unexpected expenses. It is advisable to focus on paying off high-interest debt and be mindful of spending to save money.
For businesses, it may be helpful to diversify revenue streams, reduce costs, and consider ways to innovate and adapt to changing market conditions. It is advisable to have a plan in place for managing cash flow and to focus on building up a strong financial foundation.
Overall, it is important to stay informed about the economy and to be proactive in preparing for a potential recession. By taking steps to protect yourself and your business, you can be better equipped to weather any economic downturns that may come your way.