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Oil Prices Decline 2% Due to Stronger Dollar and Interest Rate Worries

Oil prices experienced a decrease on Monday as the U.S. dollar gained strength, and concerns about a potential interest rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve in May arose. This anticipated hike could negatively impact economic recovery expectations.


Brent Crude and WTI Crude Futures Drop

Brent crude futures dropped by $1.55 or 1.8%, settling at $84.76 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.69 or 2.1%, to $80.83 a barrel. Both contracts had been on a four-week upward trend, the longest since mid-2022.

Dollar Index Gains, Affecting Oil Prices

The U.S. dollar index rose approximately 0.6% on Monday, which made dollar-denominated oil more expensive for those holding other currencies. Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said the stronger dollar placed pressure on oil prices.

Fed's Lending Rate Predictions and Impact on Oil

Traders predict that the Fed will increase its lending rate by a quarter percentage point in May. They have also pushed back expectations for a rate cut to later in the year, a typical occurrence during a slowdown.

China's GDP Data and IEA's Warning on OPEC+ Output Cuts

China's first-quarter GDP data released Tuesday is expected to favor commodity prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts it will contribute most of the demand growth in 2023. However, the IEA also cautioned that OPEC+ producers' announced output cuts could worsen an anticipated oil supply deficit in the year's second half and potentially harm consumers and global economic recovery.

G7 Maintains a $60 per Barrel Price Cap on Russian Oil

The Group of Seven (G7) coalition has decided to maintain the $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil, despite increasing global crude prices and calls from some countries to lower the cap to limit Moscow's revenue.

Iraq Resolves Technical Issues for Northern Oil Exports

Iraq's federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have resolved technical issues necessary for resuming northern oil exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan to international markets, according to four sources who spoke to Reuters on Monday.

Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Exports Decrease in February

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in February fell to 7.455 million bpd, down from 7.658 million bpd in January, as reported by official data on Monday.

U.S. Shale Crude Oil Production Expected to Rise

U.S. shale crude oil production in the seven largest shale basins is predicted to increase by 49,000 bpd to 9.33 million bpd in May, reaching a record high, according to data from the Energy Information Administration released on Monday.