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Is a "Big Move" Brewing for BTC Price?

According to Charles Edwards, founder, and CEO of asset manager Capriole Investments, a "big move is brewing for Bitcoin."

Bitcoin Logo
Bitcoin Logo

BTC/USD has recently experienced some of the least volatile conditions in its history, with the 30-day annualized standard deviation of Bitcoin volatility at lows only seen a handful of times in the past five years. Generally, the trend tends to last when Bitcoin breaks out of extremely low volatility. However, Scott Melker, host of the Wolf of All Streets podcast, has pointed to the "tightest" Bollinger Bands he has seen on the daily Bitcoin chart, leading to assumptions that volatility should now ensue. However, John Bollinger, creator of Bollinger Bands, has stated that the length of the squeeze is not necessarily pertinent to the timing or strength of future volatility.

Bearish BTC Price Predictions Abound

As the start of 2023 approaches, plenty of bearish BTC price predictions exist. Some have warned of a drop to $10,000 or lower in Q1, with hopes for an upside muted as analysts wait to see the influence of United States macroeconomic policy on risk assets.

BTC Volatility Remains Unclear

As the Bitcoin Bollinger Band "squeeze" continues, opinions remain divided on when fresh BTC price volatility will occur and in which direction it will go. Despite various macro triggers and low-volume holiday trading, BTC/USD has remained in a narrow trading range of around $17,000, leading to low volatility measured by the Bitcoin historical volatility index (BVOL). While some analysts predict a breakout soon, the direction and timing of this breakout remain uncertain.

BTC Price Action at Record Lows

Recent data shows that BTC/USD is experiencing some of the least volatile conditions in its history. The Bitcoin historical volatility index (BVOL) is currently at record lows, and other data also indicates that such sideways price action is extremely rare. This period of low volatility follows the FTX crisis, which saw Bitcoin settle into a narrow trading range of around $17,000. Despite various triggers and market events, the BTC price has remained relatively stable in this range for the past two months.