New Interest Rate Range and Policymaker Projections
The U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate is between 4.75% and 5.00%. Updated projections reveal that 10 out of 18 Fed policymakers anticipate another quarter-percentage-point increase by the end of 2023, despite uncertainty about the impact of tighter financial conditions on the labor market and inflation.
A shift in Language Following Bank Failures
In response to the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, the Fed's latest policy statement has removed the phrase "ongoing increases" from its policy statements, a change from every statement since March 16, 2022.
Market Reactions to the Fed's Announcement
Treasury security yields dropped after the statement's release, with the 2-year Treasury note yield falling over ten basis points. The S&P 500 index surged 0.6%, and the dollar weakened against major trading partner currencies.
The Fed's Openness to Additional Rate Increases
The Federal Open Market Committee stated that "some additional policy firming may be appropriate," suggesting that one more quarter-percentage-point rate increase could be an initial stopping point for rate hikes.
Banking System's Resilience Amid Challenges
While the Fed described the U.S. banking system as "sound and resilient," it acknowledged that recent stress in the sector could lead to tighter credit conditions and impact economic activity, hiring, and inflation.
Persistent Elevated Inflation
The Fed's policy statement did not claim victory over inflation, stating that inflation "remains elevated." The central bank reported "robust" job gains and projected a 4.5% unemployment rate by year-end, with economic growth at 0.4% and inflation at 3.3%.
Central Bank's Strategy Shift and Upcoming Conference
This week's meeting results indicate a shift in the central bank's strategy compared to two weeks ago when Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that higher inflation could necessitate faster rate increases. Powell is scheduled for a news conference to discuss the policy decision and recent events.