Skip to content

BTC Fails to Deliver Santa Rally for Christmas 2023

Bitcoin's historical volatility index hit a record low on Christmas Day 2022, as BTC/USD remained stuck in a tight trading range of around $16,800.

Bitcoin Logo
Bitcoin Logo

Despite a lack of a macro trigger, the pair stubbornly refused to offer any form of volatility throughout the week. According to William Clemente, founder of crypto research firm Reflexivity, "Bitcoin's volatility is at an all-time low."

Market Cap Retraces Gains from 2017 Highs

The total crypto market cap has retraced all of its gains from its 2017 highs and is now testing those highs as support. Analyst Phoenix pointed out that the length of time between BTC's prior all-time high and its Christmas lows a year later is similar to what was seen in 2018, following the pit of Bitcoin's last bear market during its previous halving cycle.

Experts Predict Lackluster Performance in 2023

Looking ahead to 2023, popular analytics account Bagsy forecasted that BTC/USD will fail to break above $25,000, with the real recovery not occurring until 2024. Even less optimistic is analyst Toni Ghinea, who predicts that the next bear market trough will occur in Q1 2023, with a final sprint towards $19,000 in the last week of 2022 and a crash to $11-14,000 in Q1 2023.

Lack of Volatility Leaves Investors Unimpressed

The lack of volatility in the BTC market has left many investors unimpressed, with some speculating that the trend may continue for the foreseeable future. Some have even begun to question the viability of Bitcoin as a viable investment, given its inability to generate significant price movements.

Increased Adoption Could Boost BTC Prices

However, others remain optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, arguing that increased adoption and mainstream recognition could lead to higher prices in the long term. As more businesses and individuals begin to accept Bitcoin as a form of payment and more institutions invest in the cryptocurrency, demand for BTC could increase, leading to price appreciation.