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Bitcoin Stagnation Explained: Impact on BTC Price Predictions for 2023

Unraveling the mystery behind the recent stagnation of Bitcoin's price, and what this could mean for its future trajectory.

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Bitcoin logo

What's Keeping Bitcoin Price Steady?

Bitcoin, a notoriously volatile asset, has been unusually stable recently, maintaining a steady price range for multiple consecutive days. Despite minor losses on July 5, the cryptocurrency's price has been largely flat, a behavior that may seem at odds with its typically erratic nature.

Analyzing the Sideways BTC Price Trend

On the day in question, Bitcoin's price dipped over 1% to around $30,350, but the overall price action stayed flat within the range of $31,400 and $29,500 that had been established over the previous two weeks. This period of consolidation comes after a 27% price rally from Bitcoin's June low of about $24,750, suggesting a reduction in the urgency of traders to buy or sell Bitcoin in the short term. Additionally, as of July 5, the daily relative strength index (RSI) has crept closer to the overbought threshold of 70, which could partially account for the lack of price movement.

Bitcoin ETF and the Federal Reserve: Impact on BTC Price

Factors such as potential approval for the U.S.'s first spot Bitcoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone may have also influenced Bitcoin's price. On June 30, the SEC deemed the Bitcoin ETF applications submitted by BlackRock and other financial giants as "inadequate". Following this, Bitcoin's trading range further contracted, with the short-term support line veering toward $30,500.

Bitcoin's Future: Bright Prospects Despite Current Stagnation?

Despite recent dips and sideways trading, from a technical standpoint, Bitcoin appears well-prepared to extend its rally into the third quarter. The current price consolidation paints an ascending triangle, a bullish pattern that indicates further growth if the BTC/USD pair breaks above the triangle's upper trendline and rises by the pattern's maximum height. This could potentially see Bitcoin rallying toward $37,000 by late summer, marking an approximately 18.5% increase from current price levels.

On-chain Indicators Pointing Towards a BTC Price Rise

On-chain indicators also suggest a favorable outlook for Bitcoin. As of July 5, the market-value-to-relative-value (MVRV) ratio for long-term Bitcoin holders was rebounding from its undervalued levels. Similar patterns in the past have foreshadowed bull cycles. However, should Bitcoin fail to break the $31,500 resistance decisively, the price might test the lower bound of the range at $25,000-26,500 in the coming weeks. This ran